How to pick a virtual challenge you will actually finish

The best predictor of what you will do next month is what you did last month. Be honest about it. Then match it to a challenge that asks a little more, not a lot more.

The total sounds scary. The daily number is what you actually live with. Here is every X Challenge broken down.

U.S. health guidance suggests about 150 minutes a week of moderate activity such as brisk walking, and it can be split into shorter chunks. Every challenge above sits within reach of that if you walk most days.

Open your calendar for the length of the window and look for trouble: trips, a work deadline, a houseguest, the holidays. One busy week inside a short window can sink it. Inside a long window it barely matters.

On X Challenge the window starts when you tap Start, not when you buy, so you can buy now and start after the busy stretch. See when to start a virtual challenge.

If you do not enjoy running, do not plan to run. Any activity the X Challenge app records distance for counts: walking, hiking, a treadmill, cycling, swimming or rowing. A 30-minute bike ride covers far more ground than a 30-minute walk, which makes the long challenges much easier for people who ride.

Plan to finish with about a quarter of the window to spare. Something always comes up: a cold, a storm, a late night at work. If your plan needs every single day, it is too tight.

• Loki: aim to finish in 6 days.
• Thor: aim to finish in 15 days.
• Kylin: aim to finish in 51 days.
• Dragon: aim to finish in 66 days.

Maria walks the dog for 15 minutes most evenings and has never run. Her normal week already holds about 1.2 km a day. Kylin at 1.3 km a day asks only a little more: one longer walk on the weekend. She picks it, starts after a work trip, and finishes with a week to spare.

James runs 3 miles twice a week and wants a stretch goal. Thor needs about 7.4 km a week, a little less than he already runs. The stretch is keeping it up for 20 days without a skipped week, and saying he covered a half marathon distance. He starts on a Monday with no travel for a month.

Priya works shifts and some weeks she cannot move at all. A short window is risky for her, so she picks Dragon: 88 days at 2 km a day. On free days she cycles 10 km and banks it, and her busy weeks cost her nothing she cannot make up.

Once the distance fits, let the medal decide. On the days you do not feel like going out, the thing you are working toward matters. If the Norse gods of Legends Of Asgard speak to you, that is a reason to pick one. If the dragon or the phoenix of The Four Holy Beasts does, pick that instead. See what makes a good finisher medal and all challenges.

Buying a collection up front costs less than buying each medal separately: Legends Of Asgard is $99 for three, and The Four Holy Beasts is $129 for four, against $45 each on their own. It also commits you to more. If this is your first virtual challenge, try one and see how the format fits your weeks. If you already know you like it, the set gives you the next goal before the last one ends, and each challenge still starts only when you tap Start.

Even a well-chosen challenge can hit a bad week. Do not try to fix it in one long day. Work out what is left, divide it by the days left, and add one session a week. If an illness or emergency makes finishing impossible, write to info@xchallenge.us before the window ends. Without a recorded finish, no medal ships.

1. Could I cover the daily average on a bad day, tired and short of time? If not, go smaller.
2. Is there a week in the window where I will not move at all? If so, start later or pick a longer window.
3. Will I still care about this goal in week three? If not, pick a shorter window or a medal you really want.

• Choosing by the medal alone, then finding the window does not fit your life.
• Basing the plan on your best week instead of a normal one.
• Going from nothing straight to daily runs. Beginner plans such as Couch to 5K build up over about nine weeks with rest days in between.
• Starting a short challenge right before a trip.

• Is Loki too easy? For some people. It is meant as a first finish and a way to learn your rhythm.
• Should I buy a collection up front? If you already know you like the format, yes. If not, try one challenge first.
• What if I picked too big? Divide what is left by the days left and add sessions, or write to support before the window ends.

If you have a health condition, are pregnant, or have not exercised in a long time, check with a doctor before you start.

• Adult Activity: An Overview, CDC: 150 minutes of moderate activity such as brisk walking a week, which can be split into shorter chunks.
• Get running with Couch to 5K, NHS: a 9-week beginner plan of three runs a week, which you can take longer over.